Ember's Light

Interesting bits of the world around us -- Logic, Philosophy, Politics, Art, People & Places, Current Events, The Environment, Psychology, Sociology, and my own thoughts on all of it.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

The Lottery Is A Tax On People Who Do Not Understand Probablilty Theory

"Dr. Cohen argues that lottery tickets are not an investment but a disposable consumer purchase, which changes the equation radically. Like a throwaway lifestyle magazine, lottery tickets engage transforming fantasies: a wine cellar, a pool, a vision of tropical blues and white sand. The difference is that the ticket can deliver.
And as long as the fantasy is possible, even a negligible probability of winning becomes paradoxically reinforcing, Dr. Cohen said."

A typical cost-benefit analysis of playing a state-run lottery proves without a doubt that no one would play..
So many people love to say that actions like playing the lottery are irrational..

Both of these claims are wrong -- we just need to consider more parts of the equation to figure out why people do it (and the certainly do it). Read about one approach to understanding human behavior in the face of punishing odds in The New York Times here.

Labels: , , , ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home